WP

"Macroeconomic Effects of Temperature Distributional Shocks" (with Lola Gadea and Andrey Ramos)
(Available very soon!!!) (presented as KEYNOTE speaker at the RCEA international conference May 2026)

Abstract:
This paper introduces an empirical framework to identify temperature distributional shocks:
a new class of shocks capturing shifts not only in the average but also across different quantiles
of the temperature process. Using gridded temperature data for the globe and a panel of 21
countries, we consistently recover three types of local and global temperature distributional
shocks and estimate their macroeconomic impacts on the cumulative growth rate of output and
total factor productivity. The first shock-type captures a classic distributional shift and yields
economic responses consistent with studies that assume the average temperature as a sufficient
statistic for climate change. Our main contribution is to uncover two additional shock-types
reshaping the temperature distribution: (i) a variability-shock that moves mid-lower and midupper
quantiles in opposite directions, and (ii) an extremes-shock that shifts the tails relative
to the center. These variability and extremes shocks induce heterogeneous macroeconomic
responses not documented in standard average-based studies. Our findings reveal the value
of modeling changes in the whole local and global temperature distribution for climate-macro
analysis and carry important implications for social cost of carbon and climate-related risk
assessment.

" Warming Dominance"" (with Lola Gadea) (March 2025) (Submitted to Nature).

Abstract:

How can we robustly compare the warming of different regions?

"Trends in Heatwaves" (with Josep Lluis Carrion and Lola Gadea) (2026) .

KEY ongoing research---Not easy!!!

"Warming and Human Health"" (with Lola Gadea and Andrey Ramos) (2026) .

KEY ongoing research---Not easy!!!

"PaleoCooling and PaleoWarming" (with Andrey Ramos) (2022).

"Threshold Stochastic Unit Root Models" (with Raquel Montesion and Junji Peng) (2018)
Abstract:

"Co-Summability" (with Vanessa Bereneguer-Rico) (PDF + Code available upon request) (This version is October 2014)
A Short Informal Abstract:

Co-integration plays a fundamental role in the econometric analysis of linear relationships
among persistent economic time series. Nonetheless, nonlinearities are often encountered in
modern macroeconometric models that account for more ï¿½exible relationships. In a nonlinear
world, however, the concepts order of integration and co-integration are not readily applicable.
The inherent linearity in the order of integration idea invalidates its use to characterize nonlinear
persistent and/or nonstationary processes and this, in turn, implies that co-integration cannot
be directly extended to study nonlinear relationships.
To overcome these hindrances, Berenguer-Rico and Gonzalo (2014) formalized the concept
order of summability of a stochastic process, which generalizes the order of integration idea to
nonlinear time series. In this paper, the order of summability is used to extend co-integration to
non-linear models. Speciï¿½cally, we formalise the idea of co-summability and propose a residual-
based statistic to test for it. The statistic can also be seen as a misspeciï¿½cation testing procedure
and is based on the order of summability of the error term. The performance of the test is studied
via Monte Carlo experiments. Finally, the practical strength of co-summability theory is shown
through two empirical applications. In particular, asymmetric preferences of central bankers and
the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis are studied through the lens of co-summability.

"SHOCKS (Can we identify them? YES, WE CAN)" (with Oscar Martinez)
A Short Informal Abstract:
At time "t" there is a shock e_t. This shock can be big or small, positive or negative, blue or red, may
have been produced when the economic is recession or expansion, when inflation is high or small,
when Barcelona soccer team wins or looses, etc. In this paper, via a new Threshold Moving Average Model,
we show how to identify and test if these type of shocks are transitory or permanent.

"Threshold Integrated Moving Average Models " (with Oscar Martïnez) (Slides)
A Short Informal Abstract: We are revising it.......stay tuned!!!

"Econometric Implications of Non Exact Present Value Relations" (PDF) (with Martïn Gonzalez) (last version Sept-1998)

"Threshold Unit Root Processes" (PDF) (with Martïn Gonzalez) (last version 1998)

PAPERS UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Many....some of them will be available soon if time teaching constraints allow me to do it...