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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20261112T124500
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DTSTAMP:20260921T115008Z
CREATED:20260915T114718Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260921T115008Z
UID:10952-1794487500-1794492000@economia.uc3m.es
SUMMARY:Perceived Budget Constraint of the Government
DESCRIPTION:Dmitriy Sergeyev\n(Bocconi University)\n  \n«Perceived Budget Constraint of the Government»\nAbstract: We provide direct evidence on how the public expects the government to satisfy its intertemporal budget constraint. In a representative survey of U.S. households\, respondents expect only 45% of government debt to be financed by future primary surpluses and 23% to be rolled over indefinitely without ever generating surpluses\, as if sustained by a bubble. Experts perceive an even larger bubble (37%). Beliefs respond to fundamentals: at a debt-to-GDP ratio of 150%\, the perceived bubble shrinks to 15%. A New Keynesian model calibrated to these beliefs implies a 13% larger government spending multiplier. \n  \n  \nFace to Face 15.2.71  –  Room 15.1.39
URL:https://economia.uc3m.es/event/tba-208/
LOCATION:15.1.39
CATEGORIES:Seminario de Macroeconomía
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/jpeg:https://economia.uc3m.es/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Dmitriy-Sergeyev-e1789472793771.jpg
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